Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230609 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     67.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  28.1  27.8  26.6  35.5  36.7  39.5  44.8  U  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  -9.0  -1.0  39.0  38.0  29.0  -3.0 -28.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  60.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0  19.0  10.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.6%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        9.3%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        4.8%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        2.4%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        0.4%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.04

 IO022023 230609 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     67.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  28.1  27.8  26.6  35.5  36.7  39.5  44.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  60.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0  19.0  10.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%