Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230609 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 67.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.2 35.8 37.7 35.6 30.2 37.0 31.9 41.1 U U U U N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 48.0 40.0 32.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 55.0 49.0 46.0 56.0 59.0 29.0 42.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 43.0 45.0 46.0 49.0 52.0 58.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 20.0 26.0 18.0 15.0 25.0 12.0 24.0 U VU VU VU U VU U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.8% 2.9% 4.3% 25kt / 24h 7.1% 11.5% 9.3% 30kt / 24h 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 35kt / 24h 4.2% 5.3% 4.7% 40kt / 24h 4.2% 5.3% 4.7% 45kt / 36h 4.4% 3.8% 4.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 2.3% 1.6% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 3.0% 0.5% 1.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 31.00 IO022023 230609 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 67.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.2 35.8 37.7 35.6 30.2 37.0 31.9 41.1 F F F F N F N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 43.0 45.0 46.0 49.0 52.0 58.0 57.0 VF VF VF VF F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 20.0 26.0 18.0 15.0 25.0 12.0 24.0 F VF VF VF F VF F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 29.9% 2.0% 16.0%