Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230610 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  24.6  32.8  33.4  41.1  40.1  37.5  35.8  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  59.0  62.0  66.0  64.0  50.0  37.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  45.0  73.0  66.0  31.0 -13.0 -13.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  44.0  43.0  46.0  48.0  51.0  58.0  58.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   4.0  10.0  14.0  14.0  18.0  22.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.4%       13.9%       17.6%
 25kt / 24h       34.6%       40.0%       37.3%
 30kt / 24h       22.4%       32.8%       27.6%
 35kt / 24h       18.3%       32.8%       25.5%
 40kt / 24h       16.6%       30.2%       23.4%
 45kt / 36h       15.9%       13.5%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        5.6%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        0.8%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.14

 IO022023 230610 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  24.6  32.8  33.4  41.1  40.1  37.5  35.8  N  N  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  44.0  43.0  46.0  48.0  51.0  58.0  58.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   4.0  10.0  14.0  14.0  18.0  22.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%