Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230610 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 67.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 51.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 36.3 36.4 38.5 41.9 40.7 40.2 43.8 VU U U U VU VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 67.0 69.0 71.0 63.0 47.0 36.0 39.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 50.0 39.0 41.0 49.0 29.0 51.0 42.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 40.0 40.0 41.0 43.0 50.0 55.0 59.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 29.0 24.0 28.0 25.0 27.0 23.0 22.0 24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 52.5% 10.3% 31.4% 25kt / 24h 30.3% 22.9% 26.6% 30kt / 24h 26.3% 14.1% 20.2% 35kt / 24h 26.0% 14.1% 20.1% 40kt / 24h 26.0% 14.1% 20.1% 45kt / 36h 23.8% 6.7% 15.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 31.08 IO022023 230610 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 67.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 36.3 36.4 38.5 41.9 40.7 40.2 43.8 VF F F F VF VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 40.0 40.0 41.0 43.0 50.0 55.0 59.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 29.0 24.0 28.0 25.0 27.0 23.0 22.0 24.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 88.4% 8.0% 48.2%