Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230610 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.5  37.0  34.0  34.6  40.5  40.3  40.1  41.3 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  57.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  40.0  31.0   2.0   1.0 -27.0 -18.0 -19.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  40.0  43.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  17.0  10.0  10.0  17.0  13.0  26.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       38.4%        8.5%       23.5%
 25kt / 24h       21.7%       19.0%       20.3%
 30kt / 24h       19.2%       12.2%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h       17.9%       12.2%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h       15.9%       11.6%       13.8%
 45kt / 36h       21.1%        5.9%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.12

 IO022023 230610 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.5  37.0  34.0  34.6  40.5  40.3  40.1  41.3 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  40.0  43.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  53.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  17.0  10.0  10.0  17.0  13.0  26.0  16.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       25.2%        8.7%       17.0%