Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230610 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 67.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.4 38.3 36.4 42.2 41.9 37.3 39.2 41.7 U U U VU VU U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 68.0 66.0 57.0 47.0 37.0 30.0 24.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 41.0 13.0 -15.0 6.0 -20.0 -8.0 -14.0 N N U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 45.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 51.0 55.0 61.0 U VU VU VU VU U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 11.0 11.0 9.0 17.0 13.0 33.0 25.0 U U U U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.9% 1.2% 4.6% 25kt / 24h 1.6% 2.2% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 1.6% 0.9% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 1.6% 0.8% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 1.6% 0.8% 1.2% 45kt / 36h 10.0% 0.6% 5.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.78 IO022023 230610 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 67.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.4 38.3 36.4 42.2 41.9 37.3 39.2 41.7 F F F VF VF F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 45.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 51.0 55.0 61.0 F VF VF VF VF F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 11.0 11.0 9.0 17.0 13.0 33.0 25.0 F F F F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 10.5% 33.3% 21.9%