Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230611 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 67.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 68.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 58.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.7 41.0 42.3 42.1 37.9 39.6 35.1 41.9 VU VU VU VU U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 89.0 87.0 82.0 76.0 64.0 51.0 40.0 36.0 F N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 12.0 -15.0 3.0 -23.0 -6.0 -2.0 -1.0 N U U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 43.0 45.0 48.0 54.0 56.0 59.0 61.0 VU VU VU U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 16.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 23.0 20.0 30.0 VU U N N N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.0% 0.6% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 3.2% 0.3% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.80 IO022023 230611 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 67.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.7 41.0 42.3 42.1 37.9 39.6 35.1 41.9 VF VF VF VF F F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 43.0 45.0 48.0 54.0 56.0 59.0 61.0 VF VF VF F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 16.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 23.0 20.0 30.0 VF F N N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 35.0% 46.1% 40.6%