Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230611 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 67.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 77.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.4 39.6 38.9 35.7 33.0 34.6 42.7 44.6 U U U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 68.0 61.0 57.0 54.0 46.0 38.0 33.0 26.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -21.0 -1.0 -31.0 -35.0 -16.0 -4.0 0.0 -22.0 VU U VU VU U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 40.0 44.0 47.0 43.0 52.0 53.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 10.0 15.0 14.0 23.0 17.0 30.0 43.0 U U U U VU U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.2% 1.2% 2.7% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 1.9% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 7.0% 0.7% 3.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.68 IO022023 230611 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 67.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.4 39.6 38.9 35.7 33.0 34.6 42.7 44.6 F F F F F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 40.0 44.0 47.0 43.0 52.0 53.0 57.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 10.0 15.0 14.0 23.0 17.0 30.0 43.0 F F F F VF F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 18.4% 36.9% 27.6%