Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230611 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 67.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.3 33.9 36.7 38.4 32.7 39.8 44.1 49.8 U U U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 62.0 58.0 53.0 48.0 40.0 34.0 28.0 22.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -15.0 -33.0 -35.0 0.0 2.0 -20.0 0.0 U U VU VU U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 45.0 52.0 55.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 9.0 18.0 19.0 28.0 23.0 28.0 48.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.62 IO022023 230611 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 67.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.3 33.9 36.7 38.4 32.7 39.8 44.1 49.8 F F F F F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 45.0 52.0 55.0 57.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 9.0 18.0 19.0 28.0 23.0 28.0 48.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 25.7% 24.8% 25.2%