Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230612 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 67.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 65.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 34.8 35.7 31.8 31.3 44.5 42.9 48.9 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 54.0 51.0 48.0 45.0 38.0 34.0 28.0 22.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -32.0 -42.0 -18.0 -6.0 -8.0 6.0 -45.0 -19.0 VU VU U U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 45.0 46.0 52.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 14.0 17.0 19.0 18.0 35.0 37.0 60.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.0% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.48 IO022023 230612 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 67.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 34.8 35.7 31.8 31.3 44.5 42.9 48.9 F F F N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 45.0 46.0 52.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 VF VF VF VF F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 14.0 17.0 19.0 18.0 35.0 37.0 60.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 10.4% 13.3% 11.9%