Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230612 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 67.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.4 36.0 33.1 32.5 39.1 44.1 49.6 42.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 48.0 45.0 42.0 36.0 31.0 24.0 22.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -52.0 -42.0 -24.0 4.0 -18.0 -35.0 -26.0 -19.0 VU VU VU U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 46.0 49.0 52.0 57.0 55.0 56.0 VU VU VU U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 11.0 13.0 18.0 22.0 27.0 45.0 28.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.2% 2.8% 3.5% 25kt / 24h 4.0% 7.2% 5.6% 30kt / 24h 4.0% 4.9% 4.4% 35kt / 24h 4.0% 4.9% 4.4% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 4.3% 2.3% 45kt / 36h 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.40 IO022023 230612 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 67.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.4 36.0 33.1 32.5 39.1 44.1 49.6 42.0 F F F N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 46.0 49.0 52.0 57.0 55.0 56.0 VF VF VF F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 11.0 13.0 18.0 22.0 27.0 45.0 28.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.2% 8.2% 8.7%