Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230612 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.90 67.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 58.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.9 33.6 33.1 33.5 43.9 42.9 50.0 39.0 U U U U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 45.0 42.0 39.0 35.0 30.0 27.0 28.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -57.0 -19.0 -10.0 -34.0 6.0 -30.0 -20.0 -55.0 VU U U VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 47.0 47.0 52.0 51.0 59.0 60.0 65.0 VU VU VU U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 14.0 14.0 13.0 34.0 20.0 48.0 31.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.9% 2.5% 4.7% 25kt / 24h 4.6% 5.6% 5.1% 30kt / 24h 4.6% 3.2% 3.9% 35kt / 24h 4.6% 3.2% 3.9% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 3.1% 1.9% 45kt / 36h 1.8% 1.0% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.26 IO022023 230612 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.90 67.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.9 33.6 33.1 33.5 43.9 42.9 50.0 39.0 F F F F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 47.0 47.0 52.0 51.0 59.0 60.0 65.0 VF VF VF F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 14.0 14.0 13.0 34.0 20.0 48.0 31.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.2% 7.1% 8.1%