Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230612 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10     67.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.0  41.6  42.9  40.5  42.1  40.4  42.1  36.3 VU VU VU  U VU  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  45.0  42.0  40.0  36.0  33.0  28.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  22.0  23.0   9.0  13.0  34.0  16.0  13.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  51.0  51.0  55.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0  22.0  19.0  21.0  22.0  25.0  31.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        1.4%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        3.4%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        1.6%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        1.5%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        0.6%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 IO022023 230612 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10     67.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.0  41.6  42.9  40.5  42.1  40.4  42.1  36.3 VF VF VF  F VF  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  51.0  51.0  55.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0  22.0  19.0  21.0  22.0  25.0  31.0  34.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       97.4%       17.9%       57.7%