Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230613 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 67.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 76.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.2 30.7 38.6 42.2 43.7 47.7 35.2 38.2 U U U VU VU VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 39.0 43.0 39.0 40.0 N N N N U N U N Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 72.3 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -16.0 -35.0 -17.0 -9.0 -49.0 -26.0 -43.0 -35.0 U VU U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 50.0 43.0 44.0 48.0 40.0 47.0 45.0 VU U VU VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 15.0 23.0 29.0 25.0 50.0 19.0 36.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.7% 5.1% 7.4% 25kt / 24h 6.2% 8.8% 7.5% 30kt / 24h 6.2% 5.8% 6.0% 35kt / 24h 6.2% 5.8% 6.0% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 5.2% 3.0% 45kt / 36h 2.2% 1.5% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.40 IO022023 230613 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 67.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.2 30.7 38.6 42.2 43.7 47.7 35.2 38.2 F N F VF VF VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 50.0 43.0 44.0 48.0 40.0 47.0 45.0 VF F VF VF F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 15.0 23.0 29.0 25.0 50.0 19.0 36.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 32.7% 9.6% 21.1%