Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230613 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 66.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 67.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.0 40.1 39.5 39.7 50.3 42.1 40.4 33.3 U U U U VU VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 44.0 42.0 41.0 42.0 40.0 41.0 35.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 50.5 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -26.0 -16.0 -16.0 -26.0 -24.0 -15.0 -51.0 -14.0 VU U U VU VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 48.0 50.0 55.0 57.0 61.0 64.0 65.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 22.0 36.0 27.0 44.0 51.0 57.0 45.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.0% 3.8% 7.9% 25kt / 24h 5.7% 6.0% 5.8% 30kt / 24h 5.7% 3.4% 4.5% 35kt / 24h 5.7% 3.4% 4.5% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 3.2% 2.1% 45kt / 36h 2.9% 1.0% 1.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.42 IO022023 230613 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 66.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.0 40.1 39.5 39.7 50.3 42.1 40.4 33.3 F F F F VF VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 48.0 50.0 55.0 57.0 61.0 64.0 65.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 22.0 36.0 27.0 44.0 51.0 57.0 45.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 45.3% 12.3% 28.8%