Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230613 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 66.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.2 42.9 44.1 47.0 47.0 38.3 33.0 32.4 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 45.0 42.0 39.0 41.0 36.0 41.0 41.0 N N N U N U N N Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 46.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -17.0 -17.0 -36.0 -73.0 -21.0 -54.0 -29.0 4.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 48.0 53.0 54.0 55.0 61.0 61.0 65.0 VU U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 38.0 32.0 35.0 58.0 32.0 29.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.9% 2.0% 3.4% 25kt / 24h 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 30kt / 24h 2.5% 1.6% 2.0% 35kt / 24h 2.5% 1.6% 2.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.40 IO022023 230613 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 66.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.2 42.9 44.1 47.0 47.0 38.3 33.0 32.4 VF VF VF VF VF F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 48.0 53.0 54.0 55.0 61.0 61.0 65.0 VF F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 38.0 32.0 35.0 58.0 32.0 29.0 45.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.7% 28.8% 64.2%