Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230613 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 66.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.0 43.2 42.5 49.2 43.9 38.6 31.1 28.6 VU VU VU VU VU U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 40.0 40.0 42.0 44.0 42.0 28.0 28.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 66.5 42.7 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 -21.0 -64.0 -43.0 -2.0 -32.0 -16.0 -26.0 U VU VU VU U VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 52.0 55.0 54.0 59.0 62.0 65.0 64.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 38.0 36.0 30.0 43.0 39.0 44.0 38.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.48 IO022023 230613 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 66.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.0 43.2 42.5 49.2 43.9 38.6 31.1 28.6 VF VF VF VF VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 52.0 55.0 54.0 59.0 62.0 65.0 64.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 38.0 36.0 30.0 43.0 39.0 44.0 38.0 38.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.7% 25.9% 62.8%