Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230614 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 66.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 37.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.2 45.8 46.6 43.8 33.0 21.5 26.9 21.8 VU VU VU VU U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 38.0 40.0 42.0 2.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 N U N N U N N N Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 51.6 39.3 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -46.0 -27.0 -5.0 -5.0 -12.0 -16.0 -27.0 2.0 VU VU U U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 51.0 51.0 54.0 57.0 61.0 63.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 32.0 28.0 45.0 48.0 25.0 19.0 32.0 26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.52 IO022023 230614 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 66.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.2 45.8 46.6 43.8 33.0 21.5 26.9 21.8 VF VF VF VF F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 51.0 51.0 54.0 57.0 61.0 63.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 32.0 28.0 45.0 48.0 25.0 19.0 32.0 26.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.7% 36.8% 68.3%