Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230614 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     66.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.5  45.5  42.4  37.0  31.6  25.1  25.7  23.5 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  41.0  42.0  30.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  85.1  57.7  54.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0 -12.0   3.0 -32.0 -16.0 -17.0 -10.0  10.0 VU  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  48.0  51.0  54.0  57.0  61.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.0  41.0  45.0  38.0  25.0  34.0  24.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.60

 IO022023 230614 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     66.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.5  45.5  42.4  37.0  31.6  25.1  25.7  23.5 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  48.0  51.0  54.0  57.0  61.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.0  41.0  45.0  38.0  25.0  34.0  24.0  31.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       99.7%       22.3%       61.0%