Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230614 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.20 66.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.7 44.4 39.3 39.4 25.2 29.8 29.8 29.8 VU VU U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 40.0 42.0 1.0 28.0 9.3 0.0 0.0 U N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 69.8 69.8 69.8 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 3.0 -32.0 -22.0 1.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 U U VU VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 47.0 50.0 52.0 55.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 U VU U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 42.0 51.0 36.0 32.0 29.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.60 IO022023 230614 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.20 66.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.7 44.4 39.3 39.4 25.2 29.8 29.8 29.8 VF VF F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 47.0 50.0 52.0 55.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 F VF F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 42.0 51.0 36.0 32.0 29.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.7% 13.2% 56.4%