Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230615 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 66.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.6 40.2 42.6 33.8 28.5 24.7 24.7 24.7 VU U VU U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 39.0 2.0 41.0 21.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 U U U N U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 95.1 66.0 66.0 66.0 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 -11.0 -34.0 0.0 -22.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 U U VU U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 51.0 54.0 55.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 47.0 38.0 39.0 31.0 34.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.42 IO022023 230615 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 66.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.6 40.2 42.6 33.8 28.5 24.7 24.7 24.7 VF F VF F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 51.0 54.0 55.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 47.0 38.0 39.0 31.0 34.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.7% 6.1% 52.9%