Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230615 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.90 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.2 35.1 29.6 26.1 28.0 23.0 27.9 26.6 VU U N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 42.0 37.0 11.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 83.5 71.0 71.0 72.7 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -21.0 6.0 -1.0 -16.0 -14.0 -14.0 1.0 -22.0 VU U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 52.0 51.0 54.0 51.0 55.0 56.0 56.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 34.0 32.0 32.0 26.0 33.0 25.0 26.0 19.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.8% 1.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.22 IO022023 230615 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.90 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.2 35.1 29.6 26.1 28.0 23.0 27.9 26.6 VF F N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 52.0 51.0 54.0 51.0 55.0 56.0 56.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 34.0 32.0 32.0 26.0 33.0 25.0 26.0 19.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.4% 1.6% 50.5%