Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230615 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     68.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  26.8  25.3  27.7  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  37.0   1.0   0.8   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 107.0  89.4  74.4  74.4  74.4  74.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -11.0 -18.0 -30.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  54.0  52.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  21.0  27.0  35.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.8%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 IO022023 230615 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     68.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  26.8  25.3  27.7  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  54.0  52.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  21.0  27.0  35.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       56.1%        0.9%       28.5%