Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230616 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.3  30.6  26.5  23.2  29.3  23.7  26.5  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  17.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 100.1  81.6  74.4  72.7  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -16.0 -11.0   0.0  -3.0  18.0 -18.0 -37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  27.0  35.0  29.0  18.0  25.0  16.0  21.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        3.3%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       11.7%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        6.4%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        6.4%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        6.3%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        5.1%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 IO022023 230616 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.3  30.6  26.5  23.2  29.3  23.7  26.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  27.0  35.0  29.0  18.0  25.0  16.0  21.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       32.4%        0.4%       16.4%