Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230616 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80     69.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  25.1  24.4  21.6  30.5  21.2  25.7  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 114.3  98.6  88.5  79.4  79.4  83.0  88.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0 -15.0 -14.0  -2.0   3.0   8.0 -14.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  30.0  27.0  16.0  37.0  11.0  28.0   9.0 VU VU VU  U VU  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.0%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        4.3%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        4.0%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 IO022023 230616 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80     69.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  25.1  24.4  21.6  30.5  21.2  25.7  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  30.0  27.0  16.0  37.0  11.0  28.0   9.0 VF VF VF  F VF  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        8.8%        0.2%        4.5%