Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230616 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00     70.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  25.1  21.5  21.5  27.1  21.3  29.1  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3  95.5  89.8  86.2  84.4  86.2  91.6  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0 -12.0   0.0  -9.0  10.0 -17.0 -28.0 -42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  39.0  23.0  15.0  23.0  23.0  13.0  28.0  10.0 VU VU  U VU VU  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 IO022023 230616 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00     70.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  25.1  21.5  21.5  27.1  21.3  29.1  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  39.0  23.0  15.0  23.0  23.0  13.0  28.0  10.0 VF VF  F VF VF  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.2%        0.2%        4.7%