Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230616 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.80 71.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.90 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 19.1 20.0 25.6 18.4 25.5 21.6 24.5 N N N N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 94.8 91.2 87.7 87.7 89.4 91.2 94.8 96.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 10.0 -6.0 14.0 17.0 -14.0 -17.0 -26.0 U U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 53.0 58.0 54.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 24.0 13.0 20.0 31.0 10.0 25.0 9.0 14.0 VU U VU VU U VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 4.1% 0.3% 2.2% 70kt / 48h 4.1% 0.1% 2.1% 65kt / 72h 7.1% 0.5% 3.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.88 IO022023 230616 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.80 71.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.