Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032023 230609 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90     91.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  35.8  33.7  34.7  21.2  21.2  21.2  21.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  34.0  27.0   1.0  56.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  41.0  49.0  34.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  21.0  18.0  28.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.0%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        6.7%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        6.8%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        3.4%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.36

 IO032023 230609 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90     91.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  35.8  33.7  34.7  21.2  21.2  21.2  21.2  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  21.0  18.0  28.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        2.2%        0.1%        1.2%