Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032023 230609 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     91.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  23.5  23.1  21.8  15.1  12.7  21.5  21.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  39.0  33.0  31.0  39.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  91.2  62.9  62.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  12.0  11.0  18.0  13.0   8.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  68.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.8%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%       14.0%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.9%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        5.4%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        5.4%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       15.1%        9.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        7.8%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        3.3%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        3.3%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.44

 IO032023 230609 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     91.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  23.5  23.1  21.8  15.1  12.7  21.5  21.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  68.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%