Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032023 230610 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     92.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  20.4  26.7  29.5  18.9  18.9  18.9  18.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  47.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  15.0  30.0  57.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  11.0  20.0  23.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        7.9%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        8.0%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        6.2%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%        6.7%        5.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 IO032023 230610 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     92.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  20.4  26.7  29.5  18.9  18.9  18.9  18.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  11.0  20.0  23.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%