Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042023 230801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     91.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.7  48.0  47.1  48.0  48.4  48.4  48.4  48.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  65.0  66.0  57.0   7.5   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1  98.5  98.5  98.5  98.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  14.0  41.0  36.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.0%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 IO042023 230801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     91.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.7  48.0  47.1  48.0  48.4  48.4  48.4  48.4 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%