Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042023 230801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80     88.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    177.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.5  47.7  47.6  50.6  45.5  46.7  46.9  48.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0   1.0   0.9   0.9   0.7   0.6   0.5   0.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 116.5 118.6 125.1 127.3 122.9 118.6 112.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  25.0  11.0  25.0  36.0  34.0  34.0  14.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  78.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  69.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   7.0   4.0  -2.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 IO042023 230801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80     88.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    177.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.5  47.7  47.6  50.6  45.5  46.7  46.9  48.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  78.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  69.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   7.0   4.0  -2.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%