Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042023 230802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     87.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    173.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.0  44.2  45.1  41.9  44.7  47.6  46.2  40.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   5.3   2.7   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.3  94.6  93.0  91.5  93.0  81.7  69.8  66.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  22.0  40.0  10.0  34.0  37.0  31.0   7.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  77.0  76.0  67.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   3.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.24

 IO042023 230802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     87.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.