Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30     61.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  13.2  17.8  17.8  18.2  19.5  22.6  23.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  59.0  77.0 105.0  38.0  22.0  12.0   8.0  N  N  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0 126.0 120.0 129.0 115.0 104.0  82.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  65.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        5.4%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       31.6%       47.3%       39.5%
 30kt / 24h       15.7%       26.2%       21.0%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%       26.0%       17.5%
 40kt / 24h        8.9%       26.0%       17.5%
 45kt / 36h       34.9%       53.7%       44.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       28.8%       14.4%
 55kt / 48h       47.5%       41.5%       44.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       29.7%       27.3%
 65kt / 72h       61.2%       44.6%       52.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.02

 IO052023 231020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30     61.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  13.2  17.8  17.8  18.2  19.5  22.6  23.7  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  65.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%