Rapid Intensification Guidance IO052023 231020 18UTC Storm Located at : 9.80 60.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.6 12.2 22.9 22.1 19.7 20.2 21.3 27.5 F F N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 93.0 111.0 51.0 23.0 10.0 7.0 8.0 N F F N U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 119.0 131.0 150.0 144.0 108.0 117.0 49.0 40.0 F F VF VF F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 71.0 62.0 58.0 53.0 47.0 46.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.3% 18.2% 15.7% 25kt / 24h 58.5% 69.5% 64.0% 30kt / 24h 34.4% 52.0% 43.2% 35kt / 24h 25.9% 52.0% 39.0% 40kt / 24h 25.9% 52.0% 39.0% 45kt / 36h 45.7% 71.2% 58.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 50.4% 25.2% 55kt / 48h 49.8% 54.3% 52.0% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 43.8% 34.3% 65kt / 72h 55.3% 46.1% 50.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.00 IO052023 231020 18UTC Storm Located at : 9.80 60.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.6 12.2 22.9 22.1 19.7 20.2 21.3 27.5 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 71.0 62.0 58.0 53.0 47.0 46.0 N N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%