Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80     59.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  19.2  20.2  17.7  21.6  28.3  26.8  31.3  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  93.0  75.0  40.0  28.0  15.0   9.0   8.0  N  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 132.0 134.0 139.0 152.0  16.0  65.0  60.0  F  F VF VF VF  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.9%       30.6%       32.8%
 25kt / 24h       73.8%       80.1%       76.9%
 30kt / 24h       56.7%       72.3%       64.5%
 35kt / 24h       46.4%       72.3%       59.4%
 40kt / 24h       46.4%       71.7%       59.1%
 45kt / 36h       59.2%       78.8%       69.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       63.6%       31.8%
 55kt / 48h       45.1%       54.4%       49.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       41.6%       33.2%
 65kt / 72h       35.6%       34.5%       35.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 IO052023 231021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80     59.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  19.2  20.2  17.7  21.6  28.3  26.8  31.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%