Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4  16.4  19.8  22.0  20.5  34.8  35.6  40.9  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  27.0  17.0  10.0   7.0   9.0   4.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  52.3  33.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   154.0 159.0 103.0  51.0  70.0  39.0  41.0   1.0 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       72.0%       43.2%       57.6%
 25kt / 24h       69.0%       62.7%       65.9%
 30kt / 24h       64.7%       61.6%       63.2%
 35kt / 24h       64.7%       61.6%       63.2%
 40kt / 24h       64.7%       58.5%       61.6%
 45kt / 36h       88.9%       47.3%       68.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 IO052023 231021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4  16.4  19.8  22.0  20.5  34.8  35.6  40.9  U  U  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%