Rapid Intensification Guidance IO052023 231022 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.00 55.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 73.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.4 23.3 24.4 24.4 25.6 32.7 45.2 48.9 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 19.0 11.0 7.0 7.0 12.0 6.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 59.3 41.5 33.5 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 168.0 130.0 81.0 54.0 77.0 75.0 41.0 7.0 VF F N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 49.0 47.0 48.0 44.0 44.0 47.0 53.0 U U VU U VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 61.8% 24.7% 43.3% 25kt / 24h 53.9% 44.2% 49.1% 30kt / 24h 44.2% 39.8% 42.0% 35kt / 24h 44.2% 39.8% 42.0% 40kt / 24h 44.2% 36.6% 40.4% 45kt / 36h 74.1% 29.3% 51.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.96 IO052023 231022 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.00 55.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.4 23.3 24.4 24.4 25.6 32.7 45.2 48.9 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 49.0 47.0 48.0 44.0 44.0 47.0 53.0 F F VF F VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.2% 1.1%