Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     54.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  23.9  25.3  30.7  38.8  45.9  50.9  62.7  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   6.0   7.0  11.0  12.0   6.0   6.0   4.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  59.6  42.4  40.5  40.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  53.0  61.0  72.0  66.0  46.0  14.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        3.1%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%        7.7%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.0%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        5.0%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        4.6%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%        1.5%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 IO052023 231022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     54.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  23.9  25.3  30.7  38.8  45.9  50.9  62.7  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%