Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231022 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     53.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  24.1  25.4  35.2  45.2  51.3  51.3  51.3  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0  10.0   4.0  11.0  11.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  36.5  36.5  36.5  36.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  70.0  71.0  77.0  55.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  49.0  54.0  54.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%        3.4%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%        5.6%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.5%        3.1%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%        3.1%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%        3.0%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 IO052023 231022 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     53.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  24.1  25.4  35.2  45.2  51.3  51.3  51.3  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  49.0  54.0  54.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%