Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     52.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  36.5  42.7  42.0  53.5  56.6  56.6  56.6  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  13.0  10.0  10.0  11.0   5.5   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.6  61.5  61.5  65.7  74.6  70.1  70.1  70.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  63.0  51.0  43.0  16.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  54.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 IO052023 231023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     52.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  36.5  42.7  42.0  53.5  56.6  56.6  56.6  N  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  54.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       11.8%        5.9%