Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  39.1  41.4  45.8  57.2  60.9  61.1  56.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  13.0  10.0  11.0  11.0   8.6   6.1   3.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  84.6  77.9  77.9  77.9  80.1  82.3  80.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  42.0  44.0  21.0   4.0  -3.0 -13.0 -23.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 IO052023 231023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  39.1  41.4  45.8  57.2  60.9  61.1  56.3  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        6.2%        3.2%