Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231023 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     52.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.9  43.5  47.6  55.5  55.5  55.5  55.5  55.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0   9.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.5  85.7  85.7  87.9  87.9  87.9  87.9  87.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0   9.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -3.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 IO052023 231023 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     52.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.9  43.5  47.6  55.5  55.5  55.5  55.5  55.5 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -3.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        1.1%        5.4%        3.2%