Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     51.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  39.7  33.1  27.1  23.3  23.3  23.3  23.3  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0  11.0  31.0  38.0  28.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -1.0   3.0  19.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 IO052023 231024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     51.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  39.7  33.1  27.1  23.3  23.3  23.3  23.3  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%