Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     50.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.7  53.9  53.9  53.9  53.9  53.9  53.9  53.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 113.6 113.6 113.6 113.6 113.6 113.6 113.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 IO052023 231024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     50.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.7  53.9  53.9  53.9  53.9  53.9  53.9  53.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        6.3%        1.4%        3.8%