Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.8  57.0  59.3  57.3  52.9  41.2  43.8  42.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  11.4  11.8  12.6  17.0  23.0   7.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 125.7 125.7 125.7 130.1 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  17.0  10.0 -10.0   7.0 -13.0  10.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 IO052023 231024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.8  57.0  59.3  57.3  52.9  41.2  43.8  42.3 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        8.2%        0.5%        4.4%