Rapid Intensification Guidance IO062023 231023 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 87.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 75.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 29.3 37.0 38.0 47.8 61.6 66.1 71.1 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 30.0 34.0 36.0 34.0 4.0 12.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 94.4 F F F F F F N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 69.0 86.0 82.0 53.0 49.0 1.0 28.0 -11.0 N F N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 60.0 60.0 57.0 54.0 43.0 36.0 U U N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.8% 6.3% 4.5% 25kt / 24h 12.9% 30.6% 21.7% 30kt / 24h 4.4% 15.9% 10.1% 35kt / 24h 3.5% 15.9% 9.7% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 14.5% 7.5% 45kt / 36h 2.3% 19.4% 10.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.5% 3.2% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 2.9% 1.6% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 IO062023 231023 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 87.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 29.3 37.0 38.0 47.8 61.6 66.1 71.1 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 60.0 60.0 57.0 54.0 43.0 36.0 F F N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%