Rapid Intensification Guidance IO062023 231023 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 87.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 72.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 31.1 34.8 38.3 46.6 60.7 73.4 70.9 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 33.0 36.0 35.0 36.0 4.0 12.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 86.0 52.7 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 90.0 70.0 61.0 8.0 27.0 14.0 -3.0 -27.0 F N N U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 54.0 51.0 47.0 40.0 U U N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 7.0 4.0 -2.0 -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 -1.0 N N N N F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.7% 6.8% 6.2% 25kt / 24h 16.7% 32.7% 24.7% 30kt / 24h 7.1% 18.7% 12.9% 35kt / 24h 7.1% 18.7% 12.9% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 16.9% 8.9% 45kt / 36h 2.9% 21.0% 11.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 7.4% 3.7% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 3.1% 1.7% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.72 IO062023 231023 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 87.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 31.1 34.8 38.3 46.6 60.7 73.4 70.9 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 54.0 51.0 47.0 40.0 F F N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 7.0 4.0 -2.0 -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 -1.0 N N N N U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%