Rapid Intensification Guidance IO062023 231023 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 88.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 81.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.0 33.4 39.7 46.8 50.7 64.1 64.1 64.1 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 38.0 35.0 33.0 35.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U N U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 107.3 107.3 107.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 47.0 44.0 10.0 20.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 53.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 0.0 -5.0 2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.7% 4.1% 4.4% 25kt / 24h 7.0% 15.4% 11.2% 30kt / 24h 3.5% 7.7% 5.6% 35kt / 24h 3.5% 7.7% 5.6% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 6.9% 3.7% 45kt / 36h 0.8% 5.6% 3.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 IO062023 231023 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 88.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.0 33.4 39.7 46.8 50.7 64.1 64.1 64.1 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 53.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 0.0 -5.0 2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%