Rapid Intensification Guidance IO062023 231024 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 89.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 89.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.2 39.7 44.0 42.4 34.8 45.5 48.1 56.6 U U VU VU U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 33.0 32.0 33.0 36.0 29.0 70.0 64.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 25.0 21.0 8.0 2.0 3.0 -13.0 21.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 56.0 52.0 50.0 42.0 37.0 31.0 27.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -6.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 N N N N F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 52.2% 18.1% 35.2% 25kt / 24h 36.9% 33.9% 35.4% 30kt / 24h 36.9% 27.4% 32.1% 35kt / 24h 36.9% 27.4% 32.1% 40kt / 24h 11.9% 24.9% 18.4% 45kt / 36h 10.4% 14.1% 12.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.9% 2.5% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 3.5% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.78 IO062023 231024 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 89.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.2 39.7 44.0 42.4 34.8 45.5 48.1 56.6 F F VF VF F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 56.0 52.0 50.0 42.0 37.0 31.0 27.0 N F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -6.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 N N N N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6%